Despite the lack of transparency from the government, researchers are working diligently to uncover the impacts of the mass deportation agenda. There is a lot of information out there by researchers, like us. We are all talking about the same thing but from different angles.
Here is a short synthesis of recent publications and how they overlap:
Economic Policy Institute’s report: The Cost of Deportations Calculator shows
- How much US taxpayer money is being spent on mass deportations, projected through the remainder of Trump’s term, at the national, state, county, congressional district, city, and average federal taxpayer level.
- It also shows what that money could be spent on—such as teachers, nurses, firefighters, veterans’ health care, and nutritional support—instead. For each option, it shows what the full amount being spent on mass deportations could fund.
America’s Voice report: End the ICE Tax: A Report on the Everyday Cost of Mass Deportation
- The focus of this report is on the costs of aggressive enforcement that are ultimately borne by consumers and taxpayers through higher prices, labor shortages, supply-chain disruptions, reduced economic growth, and billions of dollars spent on detention and deportation rather than other public priorities.
- It highlights the Brookings report by Marcela Escobar, Ian Seyal, and Paul Beach, Shock, Awe, and Economic Fallout: The Employment Effect of ICE Enforcement in US Cities
- It also highlights that prices are rising fastest in the categories that depend most on immigrant labor.
- Complemented by a campaign to help states communicate the effects of the “ICE Tax”
Immigration Research Initiative’s work:
- ICE Arrests Result in a Decline in Employment: State-Level Projections
- This report is co-authored by Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox who wrote, “Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0.” The conclusion is that arresting and deporting immigrants results in a cascade of job loss. Immigrants who are arrested lose their jobs directly. Other immigrants, including many who have work authorization, experience a chilling effect and stay home or leave the country. And, as the consumer base shrinks and co-workers who support the daily operation of local businesses are arrested, U.S.-born workers also lose their jobs.
- Their study finds a measurable decline in employment for U.S.-born men in areas of enhanced ICE activity. In particular, the study finds that for every 1,000 immigrants arrested there is a statistically significant 0.54 percent decline in the employment of U.S.-born men in the area. The study also finds no increase in wages for those men who continue to hold a job. The focus is on men because 90 percent of those arrested by ICE are men.
- Our report provides state-level data on the predicted impact of the ICE surge that arrests 1% of immigrants most at risk.
- We also highlight that businesses have a hard time replacing workers in the niches where immigrants are playing a particularly big role. That in turn has an impact on the business as a whole and creates a decline in employment in other areas where U.S.-born workers play a bigger role. And, as employment declines, so does local spending, which puts further pressure on local businesses and a further drop in jobs.
- The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Mass Deportations are a series of reports, by IRI and our partners in the State Immigration Project, which provide state-level data on:
- The number of immigrants, non-citizens, and those without authorization.
- The number of immigrants without documentation who paid state and local taxes.
- The population of immigrants working in restaurants, construction, landscaping, janitors and cleaners, maids and housekeepers, and agriculture.
These reports overlap in arguing that the mass deportation agenda is expensive and the costs are being borne by taxpayers however they are not duplicative. EPI’s report shows us the opportunity cost of spending on mass deportations, and the America’s Voice report focuses on the economic impact of it and how that shows up in our everyday lives. The work that we have focused on at the Immigration Research Initiative highlights the collateral damage that mass deportation has on employment and wages for immigrants and us born workers, and the occupation data for immigrant workers in various industries.
We are proud of the work that is happening to highlight the impact of mass deportations because it allows communities to arm themselves with data to prove what we should all know: immigration is integral to our economy and we are all better off because of it.