For Immediate Release: October 8, 2026
Media Contacts:
David Dyssegaard Kallick, Director, Immigration Research Initiative
[email protected], (646) 284-1240
Shamier Settle, Senior Policy Analyst, Immigration Research Initiative,
[email protected], (347) 834-5760
Carly Eckstrom, Deputy Director, Minnesota Budget Project
[email protected] , (612) 619-9073
From the earliest preliminary reports to the most recent data analysis, both local and national research show that mass arrests of immigrants have a substantial negative impact on the economy. Adding to this growing body of research, new analysis by the Minnesota Budget Project and the Immigration Research Initiative, based on work by Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox, allows us to estimate that there are now 32,000 fewer jobs in Minnesota than there would have been without the massive increase in ICE arrests.
Our analysis quantifies the impact on both immigrants and U.S.-born workers in Minnesota of arrests made during Operations Metro Surge and PARRIS. During the surge in Minnesota, nearly 4,000 immigrants were arrested between December 2025 and February 2026.
After scaling the East and Cox model to actual arrest numbers in Minnesota, we find a stark decline in employment compared to what it otherwise would have been, with the majority of the job loss falling on U.S.-born workers. According to our model, the level of employment for immigrants who were not among those arrested is 7,000 lower than it would have been without the surge, and the employment level for U.S.-born workers is 25,000 lower than it would have been. Overall employment in the state is 32,000 belowwhat it would have been without the surge.
Mass deportation is not doing what many common narratives promised. Instead, it is hurting our economy and causing irreparable social harm. Deporting immigrants causes an even larger decline in employment for U.S. born workers, without improving wages for those who remain employed.
Immigrants, including those without documentation, are an important part of Minnesota’s economy. There are 495,000 immigrants in Minnesota, including 200,000 who are non-citizens, and among those an estimated 129,000 who are unauthorized. And immigrants, including those who are undocumented, pay taxes. In 2022, people who are undocumented paid nearly $222 million in Minnesota state and local taxes, according to estimates by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. Detention and deportation of these workers dramatically decreases affordability and availability of important goods and services, as well as jobs for both immigrants and U.S.-born workers.
During this period of increased immigration arrests, the immigrants most vulnerable to deportation continue to be those who are undocumented, but the impact does not end there. People who have temporary visas may have seen them terminated or unrenewed. People with temporary protected status, asylum seekers, DACA recipients, and many others are also in a precarious position. Operations Metro Surge and PARRIS were proof that having working papers no longer provides the same sort of protection that it used to.
“Immigrants are an important part of Minnesota’s economy today and are essential to the health of our economic and fiscal future. This report shows deporting immigrants actually costs U.S. born workers jobs, without improving wages for those who remain employed. The report is a contribution to the growing body of evidence of the human and economic cost of Operations Metro Surge and PARRIS on people, businesses, and communities,” said Carly Eckstrom, deputy director of the Minnesota Budget Project.
“The spike in ICE activity in Minnesota shook the country last winter, with masked federal agents, indiscriminate arrests, terrorized communities, and three people shot and two were killed. For what? This report puts numbers to something that should have been clear from the start: mass arrests don’t help American workers, they shrink the economy,” said David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of Immigration Research Initiative.
“The economy is dynamic, so when one group of workers is targeted, everyone pays the price. Our report adds to a growing body of research showing exactly that,” said Shamier Settle, senior policy analyst at Immigration Research Initiative.