A New Report Models State-by-State Economic Damage
For Immediate Release: July 27, 2026
Media Contacts:
Chloe East, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Colorado Boulder [email protected]
Elizabeth Cox, professional research assistant, [email protected]
David Dyssegaard Kallick, director, Immigration Research Initiative, [email protected]
It is increasingly clear that the program of mass deportation being carried out by the Trump Administration is hurting American workers, both immigrants and those born in the United States.
A new report from Immigration Research Initiative by Chloe East, Elizabeth Cox, and David Dyssegaard Kallick takes the results of previous studies by the first two authors and applies them to state economies. The results show what ICE surges that arrest 1 percent of immigrants most at risk would do to the job options for other local workers.
In Colorado, it would mean removal of 1,000 immigrant men from their jobs, and it would shrink the labor force by an additional 2,700 immigrant men due to chilling effects and employment decline. The largest employment loss would be on U.S.-born men, whose employment level would shrink by 6,800. Wages for those remaining employed are not predicted to change.
In California, it would cause a direct removal of 15,600 immigrant men from their jobs, and a drop in employment of another 615,000 immigrant men. This chilling effect and employment decline is bigger, proportionately, in states with a bigger immigrant share of the labor force. In this scenario, the predicted job loss of a massive statewide ICE surge for U.S.-born men in California is 466,000.
The report also models this same analysis for other states.
The economic analysis underpinning these findings was first presented by East and Cox as a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper, published in April. The research shows that arresting and deporting immigrants results in a cascade of job loss.
As predicted by previous studies, but contrary to promises from the Trump Administration, the study finds a decline in employment for U.S.-born men in areas of enhanced ICE activity. Immigrants who are arrested lose their jobs directly. Other immigrants, including many who have work authorization, experience a chilling effect and stay home or leave the country. And, as the consumer base shrinks and co-workers who support the daily operation of local businesses are arrested, U.S.-born workers also lose their jobs.
The study largely focuses on men, since over 90 percent of those arrested by ICE in the second Trump administration, and before, were male.
Chloe East, Associate Professor of Economics at University of Colorado Boulder, said: “The data are in and they show the administration’s claim that mass deportations will help U.S.-born workers is false. Instead, removing people from communities and workforces and terrorizing cities hurts job opportunities of all workers, including U.S.-born workers.”
Elizabeth Cox, professional research assistant, said: “The evidence from previous mass deportations is clear: deportations hurt immigrant and U.S.-born employment with no increase to wages. This time around has been no different, and there’s been no indication that heightened ICE enforcement under President Trump has helped U.S.-born workers.”
David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of Immigration Research Initiative, said: “It should be clear by now that a program of mass arrests of immigrants by masked federal agents is hurting this country. This has nothing to do with ‘the worst of the worst.’ We’re losing people who provide important services in our communities. And it’s shrinking the economy, which—whatever you may hear to the contrary—shrinks job opportunities for all of us.”
To read the full report, click here.