Beginning in January 2025, researchers set about estimating the negative impacts the Trump Administration’s mass arrest and deportation project would have on the economy and daily life for all Americans.
The earliest analyses predicted the damage would not be narrowly contained. Based on prior instances of widespread deportation, the reports anticipated job losses for both immigrants and U.S.-born workers, as well as chilling effects that would shrink the economy and disrupt families and communities.
As the data comes in, those predictions are now being confirmed. From the local to the federal level, reports using a range of different methodologies have shown that the enormous expansion of arrests and deportations have had measurable negative impacts on the American economy, including thousands of job losses (Cox and East 2026) and billions of dollars in lost spending in local communities (Wilson, Lester, and Acosta-Cordova 2026).
This page puts together links to give an overview of the studies in one place. The list is growing – we will continue to add to it. Please reach out to suggestion additions.
National Reports
Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0
An NBER paper by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East.
ICE Arrests Result in a Decline in Employment: State-Level Projections
An IRI report based on NBER paper, written for a general audience by Chloe East, Elizabeth Cox, and David Dyssegaard Kallick.
The ICE Effect: How Immigration Enforcement Affects the Economy and Jobs
A collection of data and reports on the impacts of mass deportation by Elizabeth Cox and Chloe East.
The Labor Market Impacts of Mass Deportations
A 2024 commentary by Chloe East for the Brookings Institution.
Beyond Arrests: How ICE Enforcement Depressed Local Employment in 2025
A Brookings report by Marcela Escobari, Ian Seyal, and Paul Beach that updates the vital “Shock, Awe, and Economic Fallout” by the same authors.
Economic Impacts of Trump Administration Immigration Policy
A report by Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger of Economic Insights and Research Consulting.
Trump’s Deportation Agenda Will Destroy Millions of Jobs
A report by Ben Zipperer of the Economic Policy Institute.
Trump’s Deportation Plans Threaten 400,000 Direct Care Jobs
Another report by Ben Zipperer of the Economic Policy Institute focusing on the care economy.
The Economic Impact on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants of Mass Deportation
A 2024 review of the literature by Robert Lynch and Michael Ettlinger.
Federal Immigration Actions Could Affect State and Local Tax Revenues
A report by Gabriella Garriga and Aravind Boddupalli of the Tax Policy Center.
What Will Deportations Mean for the Child Welfare System?
A report by Matthew Lisiecki, Kevin Velasco, and Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution.
Federal Immigration Enforcement Deployment and Emergency Department Utilization Among Children
A report by Alicia Rolin and several co-authors for the JAMA Network.
The Impact of Immigration Enforcement and Anti-Immigrant Policies on K-12 Schools, Educators, and Immigrant Youth and Families
A report by Sophia Rodriguez of the National Immigration Law Center.
State and Local Reports
ICE-ing the Economy: Immigration Enforcement Under Trump 2.0 and Local Economic Activity
A report by Exequiel Hernandez focusing on major metropolitan areas.
Deportations and Immigration Limits Threaten California Families, Economy
by Monica Saucedo, Alissa Anderson, Monica Davalos, Hannah Orbach-Mandel, and Nishi Nair of the California Budget and Policy Center (2026)
The Effects of Recent Federal Immigration Enforcement on California’s private Sector Employment
A report by Edward Orozco Flores, Quy Lam, Keila Luna, and Todd Sorenson at University of California MERCED.
Economic Impacts of Federal Immigration Enforcement in Los Angeles County
A report by Shannon Sedgwick Justin Adams, Dan Wei, Max Chomas, and Matthew Skyberg of the Institute for Applied Economics for the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation.
ICE’s Impact on Colorado Workers
A two-page infographic by the Colorado Fiscal Institute combining data from a variety of sources.
Hunkering Down: The Hidden Economic Cost of Federal Immigration in Cook County, IL
A report by Matthew Wilson, T. William Lester, and Jose Miguel Acosta-Cordova of the Great Cities Institute at the University of Illinois-Chicago
ICE Spike Means 32,000 Fewer Jobs in Minnesota
A report by David Dyssegaard Kallick and Shamier Settle of IRI, and Carly Eckstrom of Minnesota Budget Project.
ICE Enforcement is Disrupting Minnesota’s Economy
A policy brief by Jake Schwitzer of North Star Policy Action.
The Economic Impact of Operation Metro Surge in January 2026: A Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Analysis
A report by Aaron Rosenthal and Aaron Sojourner of North Star Policy Action.
Effects of Tariffs and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (I.C.E.) on Small Businesses in the Flatbush-Nostrand Junction Business Improvement District
A report prepared by Alaina Bentham for the Flatbush Junction Business Improvement District.
Mass Deportations Are Wrong for New York Farms & Communities
A report by David Dyssegaard Kallick of IRI and Maggie Gray of the ew York Fiscal Polict Institute.
Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Mass Deportation: What’s at Stake in Your State?
A series of reports by David Dyssegaard Kallick, Shamier Settle, and co-authors and organizational partners in multiple states.
